DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/19 11:08
All Grains Higher at Midday
Soybeans lead broadly firmer trade.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 60 higher. The dollar
index is 35 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with
crude $0.10 lower. Livestock trade is firmer with hogs leading. Precious metals
are firmer with gold $2.30 higher.
Corn trade is 6 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade following soybeans
higher after the broad selling to start the week. Cooler temps look to build
the second half of the weekend with seasonal weather into next week. Ethanol
margins will remain tight with plentiful supply and summer driving season
coming to an end and ethanol futures just above $1.45 a gallon. Harvest should
be on the downhill slide for Brazil with more signs of imports into the SE
U.S., with mixed world conditions. Basis has started to moderate in some areas
as well, with intramonth spreads firmer even with the weakness this a.m. On the
September nearby chart, support is at the 50-day at $4.26 which we have tested
this morning with the 100-day below that at $4.03, with resistance the 10-day
Soybean trade is 20 to 23 cents higher with trade taking off late in the
overnight session and seeing more buying during the day session with products
leading values along with spread unwinding meal is $6.00 to $7.00 higher and
oil is 20 to 30 points higher. World export demand remains slow, with the ral
still cheap as it has been unable to sustain gains. Weather will come into
focus more as we head towards August and podfill season. The September chart
support is the 50-day at 8.82, with the next level up the 100-day at 8.96, with
the 20-day the next round at $9.00, which we are above at midday, with 200-day
at $9.16 the next level up.
Wheat trade is 6 to 13 cents higher with trade seeing spillover support from
the row crops. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is wider this a.m. The corn/HRW
spread is wider as well. The warmer weather should allow harvest to progress to
move to the home stretch, while Europe makes progress, and the Black Sea
continues to see mixed yields as harvest rolls on. The dollar is just below 97
on the index with firmer action this morning. The September Kansas City chart
support is the recent low at $4.31 with the first resistance the 10-day at
4.45, with the 100-day at 4.50 the next round up.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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